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| Weak China detrimental to Nepal - Mar 18, 2008 |
Damaru Lal Bhandari:
The outbreak of demonstrations in Tibet since last Friday should be taken as ominous development when it comes to the safety of Nepal. Take it from me that a weaker China is detrimental for Nepal’s territorial integrity and independence. The issue is very serious and should be viewed in all seriousness.
Illustratively, Nepal is verily a yam between two boulders. While one boulder in of course India the other is by all means China. The latter, a communist dictatorship, is however a benevolent regime given the economic progress being recorded by it over the years. It has outpaced so called democracy like India, which is in the grips of corrupt politicians and bureaucrats and unchanged poverty.
Nepal, which is yam between two giant neighbors, has so far in its history neither recorded any economic progress worth speaking about nor opened up to a pluralistic political system (there are now efforts at writing a people’s constitution though).
There are reasons why it failed on both the fronts: While the communist China did not deign it fit enough to back democratic regime fearing its own consequences, the neighboring India did not back any efforts at industrialization and modernization of the economy fearing its own repercussion. Nepal for India is a backyard where all the vile acts take place.
In fact Nepal remained a backyard for both China and India, with both trying to extend their influence over the years. Both the nations have extended their influence to a remarkable extent even as the race is still one to beat the other. Spies are on the run as are the international power brokers. Diplomats of both the countries know no bound when it comes to boost their interests.
With this as backdrop let us probe the consequences of the Tibetan demonstrations from Nepalese perspectives. What is a foregone conclusion is Nepal will come under intensifying Indian influence just in the event Chinese authorities fail to quell the demonstrations and China grows weaker entangled in its own crises. The region will no longer be under the fear of the Chinese rulers, thus leaving the field open to Indian expansionism and by dint of it US imperialism.
The latest instances of riots breaking out in Tibet and elsewhere should be viewed from larger global perspectives. There have been allegations that Church and at least one sect had been active in China fomenting discontent in the past and ever since 1990 Tiananmen massacre. The latest instance of riots actually breaking out is a culmination of what was happening all along.
What must be kept in mind is US policy in the region is subcontracted to India, with the latter obliged to protect and promote American interests while it boosts its own too. And after failing in bullying Pakistan and Bangladesh, India has only Nepal where it can foment crisis and see to it that things work out to its liking. This may be happening, with the nation hurtling towards election to constituent assembly. May be something will come out of it which will be adapted accordingly.
There is another likely outcome of Tibet demonstrations. A strong China (including its economic might) is something which cannot be brought under influence. US tried it but have failed. India simply cannot give a try even. This explains why both the nations will be happy to find rioting erupting in Tibet and other regions of China. Just in the event Chinese cannot overcome the crisis, what is a foregone conclusion is China will sooner or later disintegrate something which India would celebrate for strategic reasons. That will leave no economic challenge to Uncle Sam in this part of the world.
Take it from me that next few days or hours are crucial when it comes to stop open Indian and American dance in the region. What is irony is one has to depend on Communist rulers to stop what are democratic forces.
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